Inference of the Russian drug community from one of the largest social networks in the Russian Federation

The criminal nature of narcotics complicates the direct assessment of a drug community, while having a good understanding of the type of people drawn or currently using drugs is vital for finding effective intervening strategies. Especially for the Russian Federation this is of immediate concern given the dramatic increase it has seen in drug abuse since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early nineties. Using unique data from the Russian social network 'LiveJournal' with over 39 million registered users worldwide, we were able for the first time to identify the on-line drug community by context sensitive text mining of the users' blogs using a dictionary of known drug-related official and 'slang' terminology. By comparing the interests of the users that most actively spread information on narcotics over the network with the interests of the individuals outside the on-line drug community, we found that the 'average' drug user in the Russian Federation is generally mostly interested in topics such as Russian rock, non-traditional medicine, UFOs, Buddhism, yoga and the occult. We identify three distinct scale-free sub-networks of users which can be uniquely classified as being either 'infectious', 'susceptible' or 'immune'.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Young Individuals Are More Stable and Stand More Upright When Using Rollator Assistance During Standing up and Sitting Down

Four-wheeled walkers or rollators are often used to assist older individuals in maintaining an independent life by compensating for muscle weakness and reduced movement stability. However, limited biomechanical studies have been performed to understand how rollator support affects posture and stability, especially when standing up and sitting down. Therefore, this study examined how stability and posture change with varying levels of rollator support and on an unstable floor. The aim was to collect comprehensive baseline data during standing up and sitting down in young participants. In this study, 20 able-bodied, young participants stood up and sat down both 1) unassisted and assisted using a custom-made robot rollator simulator under 2) full support and 3) touch support. Unassisted and assisted performances were analyzed on normal and unstable floors using balance pads with a compliant surface under each foot. Using 3D motion capturing and two ground-embedded force plates, we compared assistive support and floor conditions for movement duration, the relative timing of seat-off, movement stability (center of pressure (COP) path length and sway area), and posture after standing up (lower body sagittal joint angles) using ANOVA analysis. The relative event of seat-off was earliest under full support compared to touch and unassisted conditions under normal but not under unstable floor conditions. The duration of standing up and sitting down did not differ between support conditions on normal or unstable floors. COP path length and sway area during both standing up and sitting down were lowest under full support regardless of both floor conditions. Hip and knee joints were least flexed under full support, with no differences between touch and unassisted in both floor conditions. Hence, full rollator support led to increased movement stability, while not slowing down the movement, during both standing up and sitting down. During standing up, the full support led to an earlier seat-off and a more upright standing posture when reaching a stable stance. These results indicate that rollator support when handles are correctly aligned does not lead to the detrimental movement alterations of increased forward-leaning. Future research aims to verify these findings in older persons with stability and muscle weakness deficiencies

Patients' perspectives on quality of care for chronic hand eczema:a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Hand eczema (HE) has a significant impact on quality of life and work related activities. Little is known about the patients' perspectives on quality of care for HE. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the patient perspective of the HE care process in a tertiary referral center. METHODS: Qualitative, semi-structured focus groups were carried out and recorded, transcribed and analysed by an inductive-deductive thematic approach. RESULTS: Fifteen patients participated in four focus groups. Time and attention, together with being listened to and understood by the health care professional, were the most important aspects of care for HE mentioned by participants. Other important insights included: Diagnoses, causes and follow-up of HE were not always clear to the participant; more psychosocial support was needed; participants experienced frequent changes in doctors. Information provided by nurses was valuable, but more individualized advice was needed. CONCLUSIONS: In order to better meet the needs of patients, more explanation should be given about the causes of HE and final diagnosis. Besides focusing on the treatment, it is also important to focus on its impact on the patient and options for psychosocial and peer support should be discussed. Furthermore, the specialized nurse as part of integrated care was emphasized. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Using network analysis to identify leverage points based on causal loop diagrams leads to false inference

Network analysis is gaining momentum as an accepted practice to identify which factors in causal loop diagrams (CLDs)—mental models that graphically represent causal relationships between a system’s factors—are most likely to shift system-level behaviour, known as leverage points. This application of network analysis, employed to quantitatively identify leverage points without having to use computational modelling approaches that translate CLDs into sets of mathematical equations, has however not been duly reflected upon. We evaluate whether using commonly applied network analysis metrics to identify leverage points is justified, focusing on betweenness- and closeness centrality. First, we assess whether the metrics identify the same leverage points based on CLDs that represent the same system but differ in inferred causal structure—finding that they provide unreliable results. Second, we consider conflicts between assumptions underlying the metrics and CLDs. We recognise six conflicts suggesting that the metrics are not equipped to take key information captured in CLDs into account. In conclusion, using betweenness- and closeness centrality to identify leverage points based on CLDs is at best premature and at worst incorrect—possibly causing erroneous identification of leverage points. This is problematic as, in current practice, the results can inform policy recommendations. Other quantitative or qualitative approaches that better correspond with the system dynamics perspective must be explored

A data-driven computational model for obesity-driven diabetes onset and remission through weight loss

Obesity is a major risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D), where a sustained weight loss may result in T2D remission in individuals with obesity. To design effective and feasible intervention strategies to prevent or reverse T2D, it is imperative to study the progression of T2D and remission together. Unfortunately, this is not possible through experimental and observational studies. To address this issue, we introduce a data-driven computational model and use human data to investigate the progression of T2D with obesity and remission through weight loss on the same timeline. We identify thresholds for the emergence of T2D and necessary conditions for remission. We explain why remission is only possible within a window of opportunity and the way that window depends on the progression history of T2D, individual’s metabolic state, and calorie restrictions. These findings can help to optimize therapeutic intervention strategies for T2D prevention or treatment

Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (Prep) in Preventing HIV-1 Infections in Rural Zambia: A Modeling Study

Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia. Methods: A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data from the Macha epidemic (antenatal prevalence 7.7%). Antiretroviral therapy is started at CD4/mm 3 . We compared the number of infections averted, cost-effectiveness, and potential emergence of drug resistance of two ends of the prioritization spectrum: prioritizing PrEP to half of the most sexually active individuals (5-15% of the total population), versus randomly putting 40-60% of the total population on PrEP. Results: Prioritizing PrEP to individuals with the highest sexual activity resulted in more infections averted than a non-prioritized strategy over ten years (31% and 23% reduction in new infections respectively), and also a lower HIV prevalence after ten years (5.7%, 6.4% respectively). The strategy was very cost-effective at $323 per quality adjusted life year gained and appeared to be both less costly and more effective than the non-prioritized strategy. The prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP was as high as 11.6% when all assumed breakthrough infections resulted in resistance, and as low as 1.3% when 10% of breakthrough infections resulted in resistance in both our prioritized and non-prioritized scenarios. Conclusions: Even in settings with low test rates and treatment retention, the use of PrEP can still be a useful strategy in averting infections. Our model has shown that PrEP is a cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence, even when adherence is suboptimal and prioritization is imperfect

Yang-Lee Zeros of the Q-state Potts Model on Recursive Lattices

The Yang-Lee zeros of the Q-state Potts model on recursive lattices are studied for non-integer values of Q. Considering 1D lattice as a Bethe lattice with coordination number equal to two, the location of Yang-Lee zeros of 1D ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic Potts models is completely analyzed in terms of neutral periodical points. Three different regimes for Yang-Lee zeros are found for Q>1 and 0<Q<1. An exact analytical formula for the equation of phase transition points is derived for the 1D case. It is shown that Yang-Lee zeros of the Q-state Potts model on a Bethe lattice are located on arcs of circles with the radius depending on Q and temperature for Q>1. Complex magnetic field metastability regions are studied for the Q>1 and 0<Q<1 cases. The Yang-Lee edge singularity exponents are calculated for both 1D and Bethe lattice Potts models. The dynamics of metastability regions for different values of Q is studied numerically.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, with correction